Modelling the emergence of political revolutions
When do revolutions happen? What are the necessary conditions? Here are the claims of two influential political theorists. ``a single spark can cause a prairie fire’’ Mao Tse Tung “it is not always when things are going from bad to worse that revolutions break out,... On the contrary, it often happens that when a people that have put up with an oppressive rule over a long period without protest suddenly finds the government relaxing its pressure, it takes up arms against it. … liberalization is the most difficult of political arts” Alexis de Tocqueville (1856) Is it possible to test such claims? What is the relative importance of levels of perceived hardship and government illegitimacy, oppression, penalties for rebellion, police surveillance, ...? An important paper in 2002 addressed these issues. Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach Joshua M. Epstein The associated simulation is available in NetLogo . It exhibits a number of phenomena that