A golden age for precision observational cosmology

Yin-Zhe Ma gave a nice physics colloquium at UQ last week, A Golden Age for Cosmology

I learnt a lot. Too often, colloquia are too specialised and technical for a general audience.

There are three pillars of experimental evidence for the Big Bang model: Hubble expansion of the universe, relative abundance of light nuclei due to nucleosynthesis in the first few minutes, and the Cosmic Microwave Background.

Ma showed Hubble's original data from 1929 for redshift versus distance of galaxies. There was a lot of noise in the data. Nevertheless, Hubble was right.

Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

This was first proposed in 1948 by Ralph Alpher and George Gamow. (Hans Bethe was an honorary author of the paper as a joke so that the author list would sound like the first three letters of the Greek alphabet. Gamow had a mischievous sense of humour.)

The chain of nuclear reactions that will produce the lightest elements and isotopes is shown below.

Because the binding energy of 4He is so large, it could have only been formed at an extremely high temperature of about 10^10 K. (Or is the issue activation energy for formation, not binding energy?)

Detailed calculations using parameters from terrestrial nuclear physics give the observed relative abundances of the elements. In particular, the universe is 74% hydrogen and 24 per cent helium.

The astrophysicist's periodic table showing the origin of the different chemical elements is rather cute.

Giving credit to George Gamow

Gamow, who died in 1968, made impressive contributions to theoretical physics. His Wikipedia page is worth reading. He claimed that he predicted the Cosmic Microwave Background in the late 1940s and did not receive sufficient credit when it was discovered in 1964. The 2019 Nobel Prize citation for James Peebles also minimises Gamow's early contributions. Whether this is fair or not can be debated.

Anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background.

The past two decades have seen amazing advances in precision measurements of these anisotropies. The radiation is isotropic to one part in 25000, with a temperature of 2.72548±0.00057 K.

Measurements of the anisotropies have allowed precise determinations of key cosmological parameters by fitting theoretical predictions to the data shown below from the 2018 Planck collaboration. Different peaks have different physical origins. 

The level of precision in the data is truly amazing.

The solid line is a fit to theory involving six parameters. What would Enrico Fermi say? This is not "making the tale of an elephant wiggle" because the fit parameters are all consistent with independent determination of the cosmological parameters from Hubble expansion and the relative abundance of the light elements.

Aside. The paper from the Planck 2 collaboration has been cited 19000 times, but has almost 200 authors. How does one use that information in evaluating individual authors in job and promotion applications? How are they to be compared to a single-author paper with 100 citations or a five-author paper with 500 citations?

Is this a golden age for cosmology? 

Yes, in terms of precision measurements. 

On the theoretical side, the golden age may have passed. It is not clear that new concepts or theories will emerge. The outstanding questions are:

What is the nature and origin of dark matter? of dark energy? 

Why is the cosmological constant so small? Why is it so fine-tuned?

Can the validity of inflation be pinned down?

Does quantum gravity matter?

A lot of smart people have spent decades on these problems and made little progress. That fact does not preclude the possibility of a theoretical breakthrough. However, it does not make me optimistic. I hope I am wrong.